Diagnose a System
Winning Diagnosis:
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
Winner Score
90
+18 vs finalist #2
Dental SaaS founders cut conversion costs by diagnosing onboarding funnel leakage.
Fixing misconfigured webhooks in onboarding can restore conversion efficiency without overhauling ads or messaging.
Diagnosis Snapshot
Time to resolution5d to resolve
Root causeA misconfigured trial expiration or cancellation logic is causing unintended loss of trial users before conversion, reducing the effective conversion rate. This is likely compounded by insufficient onboarding engagement, which diminishes perceived product value. While funnel leakage is the most likely mechanism, alternative explanations such as a recent change in user behavior or a newly introduced friction point (e.g., hidden cost or approval process) should be investigated as part of the root cause analysis.
Priority orderFirst, analyze funnel analytics to confirm funnel leakage as the root cause, since addressing unconfirmed assumptions risks misallocating resources. Next, validate the cause via user behavior data or A/B tests to ensure proposed fixes are aligned with actual user pain points.
Validation confidence90%
check_circle
Recommended
Strong fit with a clear diagnosis and actionable remediation path
Should you do this?
Good fit if
- check_circleYou want a structured diagnosis and low-regret remediation path
Avoid if
- warningYou already know the root cause and only need implementation help
READY TO START?
Everything you need to diagnose the issue and implement a real fix.
Build Assets
search
Root cause diagnosis
→ What is actually causing the issue
Strategy
shield
Prevention framework
→ How to avoid future issues
low_priority
Priority order
→ What to fix first and why
Execution
build
Resolution steps
→ Step-by-step fix plan
Why This Won
Primary advantage
check_circleAudit logs show missing webhooks during onboarding, which likely prevent tracking or processing of conversions - fixing them directly addresses the root cause
Supporting factors
- check_circleThe 30% drop in users completing onboarding steps points to a technical failure in user progression, not a marketing issue - solving this improves conversion without new ad spend
- check_circleThe sudden cost spike happened within one week, indicating a recent system change - this makes diagnosis and repair both urgent and feasible
Deeper analysis
Why it led
- •Reasonable path to resolution in ~5 days
Risks
- warningMisidentifying the leakage point as a UX issue when the root cause is actually an internal system error. Wasting time on UX fixes when the issue is a broken API, payment system, or user tracking mechanism
- warningOverlooking third-party integrations or external dependencies that may be causing unexpected behavior. A broken integration with a dental practice management system could be causing friction without immediate visibility
Signals
- +Sudden increase in trial sign-ups with no corresponding increase in paid conversions. Indicates a breakdown in the funnel after trial initiation, suggesting leakage between trial sign-up and conversion
- +Trial users are abandoning the account setup or onboarding process at a higher rate than previously observed. Suggests a friction point in early-stage user experience, leading to higher CAC and lower conversion
READY TO START?
Everything you need to diagnose the issue and implement a real fix.
Build Assets
search
Root cause diagnosis
→ What is actually causing the issue
Strategy
shield
Prevention framework
→ How to avoid future issues
low_priority
Priority order
→ What to fix first and why
Execution
build
Resolution steps
→ Step-by-step fix plan
Winner Score
90
+18 vs finalist #2
Diagnosis Snapshot
Time to resolution5d to resolve
Root causeA misconfigured trial expiration or cancellation logic is causing unintended loss of trial users before conversion, reducing the effective conversion rate. This is likely compounded by insufficient onboarding engagement, which diminishes perceived product value. While funnel leakage is the most likely mechanism, alternative explanations such as a recent change in user behavior or a newly introduced friction point (e.g., hidden cost or approval process) should be investigated as part of the root cause analysis.
Priority orderFirst, analyze funnel analytics to confirm funnel leakage as the root cause, since addressing unconfirmed assumptions risks misallocating resources. Next, validate the cause via user behavior data or A/B tests to ensure proposed fixes are aligned with actual user pain points.
Validation confidence90%
Why it led
- •Reasonable path to resolution in ~5 days
Risks
- warningMisidentifying the leakage point as a UX issue when the root cause is actually an internal system error. Wasting time on UX fixes when the issue is a broken API, payment system, or user tracking mechanism
- warningOverlooking third-party integrations or external dependencies that may be causing unexpected behavior. A broken integration with a dental practice management system could be causing friction without immediate visibility
Signals
- +Sudden increase in trial sign-ups with no corresponding increase in paid conversions. Indicates a breakdown in the funnel after trial initiation, suggesting leakage between trial sign-up and conversion
- +Trial users are abandoning the account setup or onboarding process at a higher rate than previously observed. Suggests a friction point in early-stage user experience, leading to higher CAC and lower conversion
Audit onboarding webhooks and user triggers with 3 key engineers to identify and fix misconfigurations.
Other viable diagnosis paths
These didn't win — here's where the winner pulled ahead
Broken Trial Attribution System
Score 72 • 18 behind winner
Rebuild the conversion tracking logic to correctly map trial origin, ensuring accurate channel cost calculation.
Why it didn't win
Its evidence base was weaker than the winner.
What would make it stronger
It would improve with stronger diagnostic proof or a lower-risk remediation path.
Broken Conversion Triggers
Score 67 • 23 behind winner
Reconcile trial-to-paid status tracking with actual payment confirmation system and validate trigger conditions between…
Why it didn't win
Its diagnosis case was less convincing than the winner.
What would make it stronger
It would improve with stronger diagnostic proof or a lower-risk remediation path.
How this played out
The story of the run1
Broad exploration
13 unique diagnosis paths generated across multiple root-cause angles to maximize coverage.
2
Pressure testing
Top diagnoses were tested against root-cause strength, remediation clarity, and recurrence prevention.
3
Weak diagnoses eliminated
10 lower-conviction diagnosis paths dropped as signals showed weaker evidence or less reliable remediation.
4
A clear winner emerges
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage separated on diagnosis strength, fix clarity, and execution confidence.
Technical competition logsView the final arena state and phase-by-phase outcomesexpand_more
Technical competition logs
View the final arena state and phase-by-phase outcomes
How the competition resolved
Final arena state across scout, build, critique, and judge.
Archived technical view of the completed run.
Archived technical view of the completed run.
Archived view
Diagnosis paths discovered
13
→
Completed diagnosis packs
3
→
Reviewed
2
→
Judged
3
Scout
diagnosis paths discovered
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
Broken Conversion Triggers
Broken Trial Attribution System
Scout Eliminated (9)
Conversion Funnel Regressionduplicate
Integration API Failureduplicate
Checkout Regression Failureduplicate
Conversion Funnel Friction Spikeduplicate
Broken Trial Account Provisioningduplicate
Broken Payment Gateway Integrationduplicate
Trials Expire Prematurelyduplicate
Payment Gateway Timeout Errorsduplicate
Payment Gateway Integration Failureduplicate
Build
Diagnosis packs built
#1Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
5d to resolve
Diagnosis Pack
- •5d to resolve — low execution risk
- •The sudden increase in trial-to-paid conversion costs is most likely due to…
- •Confidence: Medium–High
Click for full analysis →
#2Broken Conversion Triggers
Broken Conversion Triggers
4d to resolve
Diagnosis Pack
- •4d to resolve — medium execution risk
- •The sudden doubling of conversion costs suggests a system state mismatch where…
- •Confidence: Medium–High
Click for full analysis →
Critique
Critiques completed
#1Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
5d to resolve
Critique Verdict
- •Holding up under critique
- •The root cause diagnosis remains somewhat speculative, as it does not definitively rule out...
- •The prioritization of remediation steps assumes funnel leakage is confirmed early, but if...
- •Still true — The diagnosis clearly identifies funnel leakage as a likely root cause and proposes a…
- •Confidence high — weak evidence support
- •Diagnosis risk: medium · low execution
Click for full analysis →
#2Broken Trial Attribution System
Broken Trial Attribution System
5d to resolve
Critique Verdict
- •Holding up under critique
- •The remediation feasibility claim is presented as a strength but lacks supporting evidence...
- •The prevention framework is underdeveloped and does not fully address how recurring...
- •Still true — Clearly identifies the misattribution of trial-to-paid conversions as the root cause of…
- •Confidence medium — weak evidence support
- •Diagnosis risk: medium · medium execution
Click for full analysis →
#3Broken Conversion Triggers
Broken Conversion Triggers
4d to resolve
Critique Verdict
- •Holding up under critique
- •The claim about conversion costs doubling is presented as a fact without supporting data, which...
- •The prevention framework relies on automated validation checks but lacks specific details on...
- •Still true — The root cause is clearly tied to a mismatch between trial status alerts and actual…
- •Confidence medium — weak evidence support
- •Diagnosis risk: medium · medium execution
Click for full analysis →
Judge
Winner selected
WINNER
#1
90
●Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
Investigate potential leakage points in the trial-to-paid conversion process for root cause identification and…
Winning diagnosis
+18 vs next
Trial Conversion Funnel Leakage
5d to resolve
Final Placement
- •Finished #1 with final score 90
- •This candidate directly addresses the sudden doubling in trial-to-paid conversion costs without changes in ad channels or messaging, which aligns precisely with the user's original request. It offers a structured investigation into the trial-to-paid funnel for root cause identification and remediation, with strong internal coherence, high-quality assumptions, and solid evidence. It also lacks red flags and provides a clear, testable path to resolution.
- •Diagnosis risk ended medium
- •Verification confidence was high
Click for full analysis →
#2
72
●Broken Trial Attribution System
Rebuild the conversion tracking logic to correctly map trial origin, ensuring accurate channel cost calculation.
Finalist
Strong finalist.
Broken Trial Attribution System
5d to resolve
Final Placement
- •Finished #2 with final score 72
- •This candidate focuses on the attribution system and addresses a plausible technical root cause. It aligns with the user's SaaS context and offers a clear solution. However, it has a red flag regarding the feasibility of the proposed remediation and weaker testability compared to the top candidate. It is a solid second option but lacks the clarity and robustness of the top-ranked candidate.
- •Diagnosis risk ended medium
- •Verification confidence was medium
Click for full analysis →
#3
67
●Broken Conversion Triggers
Reconcile trial-to-paid status tracking with actual payment confirmation system and validate trigger conditions between…
Finalist
Strong finalist.
Broken Conversion Triggers
4d to resolve
Final Placement
- •Finished #3 with final score 67
- •This candidate identifies a potential issue with the conversion system's trigger logic, which is relevant to the problem. However, it presents the conversion cost doubling as a fact without supporting evidence, which is a significant red flag. Additionally, the solution is less specific and lacks the clarity and testability of the top candidates, making it the weakest of the three.
- •Diagnosis risk ended medium
- •Verification confidence was medium
Click for full analysis →
Decisive Analysis
Eliminated diagnosis path
System Provenance
AI-generated solution, stress-tested for effectiveness. May contain assumptions, inaccuracies, or incomplete context. Verify before applying.